https://www.tajdoventures.com/home daily 1.0 2021-10-04 https://www.tajdoventures.com/about daily 0.75 2021-08-27 https://www.tajdoventures.com/episodes daily 0.75 2022-03-06 https://www.tajdoventures.com/episodes/episode-01-slow-travel-6mdrx monthly 0.5 2021-09-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628538116927-5ZP448QGVTMYWQLU1VX4/Inflation+Equity+Proxies.jpg Macro news analysis - Observations: 19 June 2021 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.tajdoventures.com/episodes/observations-12-september monthly 0.5 2021-09-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1631454775432-JAY1MJ4EDSV7B3OYJI0W/CNY+share.JPG Macro news analysis - Observations: 12 September - Make it stand out Source: SWIFT https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1631350824747-UJWITLT9SSIC6Z44JC84/Asia+FX+reserves.jpg Macro news analysis - Observations: 12 September - Make it stand out Aggregates FX reserves relative to imports for: Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, S. Korea, Taiwan, India, China (from 1977), HK (from 1990), and Vietnam (from 1995). Sources: World Bank, IMF, various national statistics agencies; own calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1631439456124-42GEAISPTHB3M1VD22SG/Share+of+GDP+%26+Reserves.jpg Macro news analysis - Observations: 12 September - Make it stand out Sources: Maddison Project Database; IMF; Eichengreen-Mehl-Chuti data; Own Calculations. Full citation below. https://www.tajdoventures.com/episodes/observations-15-september monthly 0.5 2021-09-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1631737062991-9U8X7JWH0FLMSUNSAWHD/China+repo.jpg Macro news analysis - Observations: 15 September - Make it stand out Source: Chinamoney.com.cn; Reuters. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1631738888338-54SMDFWMWJATMI84RV6O/China+yoy+growth.jpg Macro news analysis - Observations: 15 September - Make it stand out Source: Xinhua https://www.tajdoventures.com/episodes/observations-26-september monthly 0.5 2021-09-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1632668693960-O8JQ2P7F23DLDQPK4FOU/Autos+%281%29.jpg Macro news analysis - Observations: 26 September - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1632670477583-E4RM694DFUNTZ7BB9960/Building+Products.JPG Macro news analysis - Observations: 26 September - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1632688432230-TXBZD2G0UCU7XSVGXYET/FedEx.jpg Macro news analysis - Observations: 26 September - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.tajdoventures.com/episodes/observations-2-october monthly 0.5 2021-10-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1633160922944-DPDS95BWR6GKSORA91SA/Fiscal+impulse.JPG Macro news analysis - Observations: 2 October - Make it stand out Source: IMF. Change in cyclically-adjusted primary deficit as % of GDP. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1633160253874-FA1S4SMSIVFS3OW8O9IB/Accomodation+spending.JPG Macro news analysis - Observations: 2 October - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1633159994027-OT36QI18UY6M5ZK8N7IC/Savings+rate.JPG Macro news analysis - Observations: 2 October - Make it stand out The chart above omits “covid period” data on the savings rate to maintain scale. https://www.tajdoventures.com/episodes/just-how-scarce-is-copper monthly 0.5 2021-10-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1634158939351-8L8DZ8VWQ91ATM43NP16/Glencore.JPG Macro news analysis - Just how scarce is copper? - Make it stand out Global copper mine project pipeline. Source: Glencore 2021 AGM presentation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1634159732434-MIQEA3WNODZARF4IOJ98/Commodity+Demand.JPG Macro news analysis - Just how scarce is copper? - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1634158364287-VVR3KFOQT7VZ7XR4Y3Z3/Exploration+capex+copper.jpg Macro news analysis - Just how scarce is copper? - Make it stand out Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics. Plots overall mining exploration capex vs mining industry gross value added. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1634159966740-BWB97S4E12AQMJU8920R/Copper+and+China.JPG Macro news analysis - Just how scarce is copper? - Make it stand out Source: Bloomberg via Yahoo! Finance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1634162203488-3B9XXJGH1XYM31KBCDTR/Copper+as+%25+of+assets.jpg Macro news analysis - Just how scarce is copper? - Make it stand out Aggregates Codelco, Antogofasta, BHP, Freeport, and Southern Copper. Source: Company reports; 2021/2022e use Fitch. https://www.tajdoventures.com/episodes/sqbdzzyd16ou083hhgx2orlreun9el monthly 0.5 2021-10-19 https://www.tajdoventures.com/episodes/the-fed-is-changing-its-messaging monthly 0.5 2021-10-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1635196734673-C936ZLLD9FFHHKOU2QD7/Tech+vs+S%26P+equal+weight.jpg Macro news analysis - The Fed’s messaging is changing - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1635194681373-3WKA9RRX0QZ1R5ELVOPX/Goodhart+slides.JPG Macro news analysis - The Fed’s messaging is changing - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.tajdoventures.com/episodes/persistent-inflation-and-a-faster-reduction-in-qe monthly 0.5 2021-11-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1637405280439-72J130URUEJ6FETQQEB6/Inflation+serial+correlation.jpg Macro news analysis - Persistent inflation and a faster reduction in QE - Make it stand out Source: St Louis Fed. Inflation last year = trailing 12 month median change in prices, excluding food and energy https://www.tajdoventures.com/episodes/2zm3t192jy82oz901z17cqab941y4q monthly 0.5 2022-01-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1642021028142-MW32Y2CSB7OYPWK06BAG/Beta+of+Inflation+to+FF.JPG Macro news analysis - How much tightening will be required? - Make it stand out "Expectations and the effects of Monetary Policy". Laurence Ball and Dean Croushore. NBER. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1642109801718-ZZ1K6LB0X90MI5QUNMAJ/FOMC+survey.JPG Macro news analysis - How much tightening will be required? - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.tajdoventures.com/episodes/crossing-the-rubicon monthly 0.5 2022-03-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1646593755455-WSM3M6BEH3752WT2R1M0/Bitcoin+and+market+depth.JPG Macro news analysis - Crossing the Rubicon - Make it stand out "A million metaorder analysis of market impact on Bitcoin". J. Donier and J. Bonart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1646576619606-S919M5YB1J0KAYU59XUS/Gold+as+share+of+reserves.JPG Macro news analysis - Crossing the Rubicon - Make it stand out Source: BIS https://www.tajdoventures.com/episodes/category/Travel monthly 0.5 https://www.tajdoventures.com/episodes/category/Relationships monthly 0.5 https://www.tajdoventures.com/episodes/category/Health monthly 0.5 https://www.tajdoventures.com/episodes/category/Culture monthly 0.5 https://www.tajdoventures.com/episodes/category/Sports monthly 0.5 https://www.tajdoventures.com/blog daily 0.75 2022-06-19 https://www.tajdoventures.com/blog/blog-post-title-four-c3k55-k8d4n monthly 0.5 2021-08-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628084711920-A4NYJPRDFADF4TSIMTTE/PCE+forecast+by+survey+date.jpg Portfolio Strategy - The long-term story on inflation - The forecasts which influence monetary policy still assume a significant normalization lower in inflation beyond 2021. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628086743479-C7IPD6Y4UZ6H13MDQHPF/Bank+holding+of+USTs.jpg Portfolio Strategy - The long-term story on inflation - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628086039943-FY1LO6CSCB35S7DALBRJ/Monetization+Levels.jpg Portfolio Strategy - The long-term story on inflation - Make it stand out Source: Annual Reports of Federal Reserve; St Louis Fed; Own Calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628103084022-RMCKPSFHV2VNBELLAS7E/Broad+Money+%26+Inflation.jpg Portfolio Strategy - The long-term story on inflation - Make it stand out Source: St Louis Federal Reserve; Own Calculations. Broad money uses ‘all currency and deposits’ (prior to 1959) and M2 after 1959. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628086106133-AUUB7RW0OF6FWFMMWS93/HH+Debt+Service.jpg Portfolio Strategy - The long-term story on inflation - Make it stand out Source: NY and St Louis Federal Reserve; Own Calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628086726273-DK4CVJ17W9AEOEP0OLOS/MMFs.jpg Portfolio Strategy - The long-term story on inflation - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628086200350-MGTL7C30O9GZ8Y7Y6DL9/LTD+ratio+of+banks.jpg Portfolio Strategy - The long-term story on inflation - Make it stand out Note: 1969 to 1973 data is interpolated. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628087004883-E0FGO6VQZ5EE5VF4CDP4/Foreign+holdings+of+USTs.jpg Portfolio Strategy - The long-term story on inflation - Make it stand out Note: Logarithmic scale to show growth rate. Source: US Department of Treasury (TIC data) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628086531134-XTY8EYAF6MEUKUUSAT78/Dollar+Index.jpg Portfolio Strategy - The long-term story on inflation - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.tajdoventures.com/blog/vegan-trends-amp-fried-chicken-ls99k monthly 0.5 2021-08-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628092771440-IP8GZK9HKMCD2SFTNLST/USD+and+BCOM.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Country Allocation in an Inflationary Environment - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628093408131-BZ46Y5AC2P8UEDVNI9T5/Commodity+Countries.JPG Portfolio Strategy - Country Allocation in an Inflationary Environment - The evidence: https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628092505094-9DPZR5BYLF43DWBBMBPG/Current+Index+Weights.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Country Allocation in an Inflationary Environment - Make it stand out Figure 1. References: IMF Coordinated Portfolio Survey; MSCI; Own Calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628093430759-5GTWJZVI03CJYF2UB0V6/Trade+and+Investment+Economies.JPG Portfolio Strategy - Country Allocation in an Inflationary Environment - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628092810455-TS5Y36ICNUOZ4S4D4AKS/USD+and+World+Trade.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Country Allocation in an Inflationary Environment - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628093015125-LYZ22RFMH41OZDU89OLZ/Kuroda+chart.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Country Allocation in an Inflationary Environment - Make it stand out References: Bank of Japan. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628092583803-122XATQDGZMNSQKMVZCN/Portfolio+allocations.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Country Allocation in an Inflationary Environment - Make it stand out Figure 2. References: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds data; MSCI; Own Calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628093105228-EVISGHXJXSRWP8PJJ81W/Investment+to+GDP.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Country Allocation in an Inflationary Environment - Make it stand out Source: World Bank; own calculations. “Four Tigers” is the grouping of Taiwan, Korea, Singapore and HK (weighted by GDP). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628092840140-OLZJPFV5BDWU8L1SY893/USD+and+Import+Prices.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Country Allocation in an Inflationary Environment - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.tajdoventures.com/blog/backpacking-through-europe-923fe monthly 0.5 2021-08-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628088089528-ZLXN3YAJTJKR0Q6O84MM/Inflation+-+REITs+and+ADM.JPG Portfolio Strategy - Thinking about Sector Allocation in Inflation - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628087362737-1GJ8Z5R7CV3YPH47MLPU/60.40+during+inflation.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Thinking about Sector Allocation in Inflation - Make it stand out Chart 1. Scale is logarithmic to show growth trajectory; horizontal axis is year. References: Robert J Shiller dataset; Own Calculations https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628091058926-E7HQPT334PNYH0ARKYIL/CPI+housing.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Thinking about Sector Allocation in Inflation - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628087802847-3YIB9DP5KWMXMFIEN7RH/Sectors+in+Inflation+2.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Thinking about Sector Allocation in Inflation - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628092159737-AHLVY5YFAXMPBXZAHHFC/Consumer.JPG Portfolio Strategy - Thinking about Sector Allocation in Inflation - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628090905351-LQZC7T13XZJKKM3TETSF/CPI+projection+with+PPI.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Thinking about Sector Allocation in Inflation - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628092195826-SHATSRC12M2ZU89M4ZQU/Real+Estate.JPG Portfolio Strategy - Thinking about Sector Allocation in Inflation - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628091862450-5DVGUNOMX3PCBCRCYY6S/Semiconductors+%26+Tech.JPG Portfolio Strategy - Thinking about Sector Allocation in Inflation - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628088321488-VN58R3V3EWIDNGVL6W00/Inflation+-+Pharma+%26+HC.JPG Portfolio Strategy - Thinking about Sector Allocation in Inflation - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628087707209-6PQAM8JWR625TYCROHDL/Sectors+in+Inflation.JPG Portfolio Strategy - Thinking about Sector Allocation in Inflation - Make it stand out Sources: NAREIT; Fama-French data set; Own Calculations. Notes: Inflation Portfolio weighted by risk. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628087827110-UPN5FKT0LZQNA0IE50KG/Sectors+in+Inflation+3.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Thinking about Sector Allocation in Inflation - Make it stand out Chart is logarithmic to show growth rates. Areas shaded dark grey are periods with CPI >5% (light grey areas 3%+) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628092179269-ABH4SSYFU94CWVGZJW9N/Industrials+%26+Materials.JPG Portfolio Strategy - Thinking about Sector Allocation in Inflation - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628087950670-35AZ5ES1UJCH879KNK82/Inflation+-+Semis+and+Mining.JPG Portfolio Strategy - Thinking about Sector Allocation in Inflation - Make it stand out Semis: 1970-1977: Equal-weight index of: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), SkyWorks (SWKS), and Texas Instruments (TXN). For 1977-1995: includes also Analog Devices (ADI) and Intel (INTC). From 1995: PHLX Semiconductor Index Materials/Mining: 1970 to present: Equal-weight index of: Alcoa (AA), Vulcan Materials (VMC), Dupont (DD), Newmont (NEM), and Carter Technology (CRS) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628090984010-KWQKYZBGNLUJ0E9T8C2X/CPI+rent.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Thinking about Sector Allocation in Inflation - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628092034566-MQVNSBE8H68TYAOA36GQ/Pharma+%26+HC.JPG Portfolio Strategy - Thinking about Sector Allocation in Inflation - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.tajdoventures.com/blog/preparing-for-a-slowdown monthly 0.5 2021-08-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628142124457-R4K7P33BH1GZBT98CFMU/Defensive+EQY+Summary.JPG Portfolio Strategy - Preparing for a Slowdown - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628141720086-XKNUHZGKMTJDILGRTLJB/LEI+score+vs+S%26P.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Preparing for a Slowdown - Make it stand out References: Standard & Poor’s; St Louis Federal Reserve; Institute of Supply Management; Own Calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628142190672-QNSALEM0VQVKDOBSS7OR/Defensive+EQY+Chart.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Preparing for a Slowdown - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1629390942147-JTFNZV8GH9P9CW6FAD2U/Defensive+EQY+EBIT.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Preparing for a Slowdown - Make it stand out Scale is logarithmic to show growth rates. References: Own calculations; Standard & Poor’s Index weights. https://www.tajdoventures.com/blog/the-short-term-story-on-inflation monthly 0.5 2021-08-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628152317149-J18R7AUXMYH9I93YONYI/China+PPI+vs+M1+YoY+%28short+term%29.JPG Portfolio Strategy - The short-term story on inflation - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1628158632874-GO7LP4ZWPY8DWCFDFN7B/Leading+Indicator+for+US+CPI.JPG Portfolio Strategy - The short-term story on inflation - Make it stand out The leading indicator of US inflation incorporates the PPI in China, change in the Yuan / $ exchange rate (y/y), gasoline prices (y/y), as well as rent projections (based off of Zillow). It produces an R-sq of 0.76 historically. Projections incorporate a unchanged FX rate and gasoline prices and a rough estimation of China PPI based on the relationship above. https://www.tajdoventures.com/blog/alternative-assets monthly 0.5 2021-09-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1630533367462-2EQZIVJDNIP9G9OSUVLH/Commodities+%26+China.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Alternative store-holds of wealth - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1630534176731-KQ6ZEEP868UMQB78Z947/Real+home+prices.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Alternative store-holds of wealth - Make it stand out Source: Robert J Shiller. Chart on log-scale to show growth rates. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1630534364621-8DEP1U3OVCN9RJRZPWCO/Broad+Money+and+Commodities.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Alternative store-holds of wealth - Make it stand out Sources: Commodities real returns data via David Jacks (citation below); own calculations. Included in the chart are copper, lead, tin, nickel and zinc. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1630534295065-NU0ROT9D4L2NL7H4YH1Z/Real+Credit+Spread.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Alternative store-holds of wealth - Make it stand out Chart: Yield on a BBB corporate bond less projected ten year inflation (derived from TIPs yield). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1630834672005-LOOL9AVYZZZGX6EJ3HKC/Commodity+CapEx+vs+Returns.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Alternative store-holds of wealth - Make it stand out Source: St Louis Federal Reserve. David Jacks (citation below). Own calculations. Commodity CapEx is relative to total fixed investment in the US. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1630534074955-RNIZPYVPKW54R2VJTJCH/Housing+%26+Equities.JPG Portfolio Strategy - Alternative store-holds of wealth - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1630530377226-7JMQGOE0F52K8OKXCKFA/Gold+vs+USTs.JPG Portfolio Strategy - Alternative store-holds of wealth - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1630833972561-C4Q0643Z225Z60KQ0Y6U/House+price+%26+inventories.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Alternative store-holds of wealth - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1630836309003-HBARYA9OOAF03EGM4T19/Commodity+vs+Gold.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Alternative store-holds of wealth - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.tajdoventures.com/blog/asset-allocation monthly 0.5 2021-09-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1632064192988-144OT8E3Y0L063XIT66H/Inflation+composite.JPG Portfolio Strategy - A Framework for Equity Allocation - Make it stand out The Inflation Composite Indicator uses three components (the ISM price survey; the NFIB price survey; and the y/y change in the CPI rate) which are converted into Z-scores and shown advanced 6 to 12 months, depending on the series. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1632070310359-DBV9FBGVB27HKA9WOUXN/TAA.JPG Portfolio Strategy - A Framework for Equity Allocation - Make it stand out Sources: Yardeni (for consensus EPS forecasts); JPM Asset Management (for long-term average sector P/E ratios); NAREIT. https://www.tajdoventures.com/blog/leaning-into-policy-easing-in-china monthly 0.5 2021-10-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1633153370802-N7LM9RWXDAWUXEJQLJY4/Aussie+vs+USA.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Diversification: A case for adding Australia - Make it stand out Sources: RBA; Stooq.com; MeasuringWorth (full citation below) for CPI data; author’s calculations. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1633379735627-RU45N68KN7VIDBGL06SJ/Aussie+vs+USA+-+Money+Supply.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Diversification: A case for adding Australia - Make it stand out Source: FXEmpire; St. Louis Federal Reserve; author’s calculations. Uses M1 for China and M2 for the US. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1633380339452-6VCP2CMDC8S1YEABK10D/Aussie+CAPE+PE.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Diversification: A case for adding Australia - Make it stand out Source: CAPE P/E ratios provided by Barclays. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1633377489554-KAI2M574018Z1QB4MA5J/AUD.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Diversification: A case for adding Australia - Make it stand out Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics; U.S. Federal Reserve; author’s calculations. September data for ToT approximated by the change in iron ore price. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1633464390248-QXNVA7N4BFKL5AGWKCXO/China+leads+the+US.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Diversification: A case for adding Australia - Make it stand out Source: Investing.com; author’s calculations https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1633381690824-T1A0TQIJYYKCXI3NOH9Z/Aussie+regression.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Diversification: A case for adding Australia - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1633467382677-IW12TTWY9WD79YVPA1YB/Li+Keqiang+and+Aussie+rel.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Diversification: A case for adding Australia - Make it stand out Source: MacroMicro; Author’s calculations. https://www.tajdoventures.com/blog/implications-of-chinas-rise monthly 0.5 2021-11-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1633985535660-DR2YJ0GX4CKGDLYQGGXI/The+Penn+Effect.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Implications of China’s Rise - Make it stand out Currency valuation vs PPP (x-axis); GDP per capita relative to USA (y-axis). Shown as log values. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1638009150372-PBC8CF4CFOIVCKPNAP3C/Penn+Effect+-+China+%2B+India.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Implications of China’s Rise - Make it stand out Data from 1985 to 2020 (each dot is one year). Source: OECD and World Bank. GDP per capita is in real terms. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1638216929901-6Y1OMNZP3TLA940ATQX7/SZSE.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Implications of China’s Rise - Make it stand out Earnings yield is TTM earnings rolled forward by 1 year (using a LT EPS growth rate of 9.5%) https://www.tajdoventures.com/blog/real-estate-is-not-a-universally-good-inflation-hedge monthly 0.5 2021-11-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1636319513278-4YB2J6WZTKIL31QGPSAA/Farmland+returns.jpg Portfolio Strategy - REITs and Alts into a down-cycle - Make it stand out Source: TIAA Center on Farmland Research. Recession years highlighted on X-axis. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1636063640449-TAYINCMF317X9R1MSEEH/Transurban.jpg Portfolio Strategy - REITs and Alts into a down-cycle - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1636297234764-KAM3BOQ1W9HKYLW86O24/REIT+subsector+performance.jpg Portfolio Strategy - REITs and Alts into a down-cycle - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1636300617087-OFVTXAAW557W7JITC8MK/REIT+beta.JPG Portfolio Strategy - REITs and Alts into a down-cycle - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1636297162249-0RUWNZN9FQHFWIUESHUT/Infra+Rel+vs+S%26P.jpg Portfolio Strategy - REITs and Alts into a down-cycle - Make it stand out Weighted average performance of 22 infrastructure companies* against the S&P 500 https://www.tajdoventures.com/blog/the-shorter-term-story-on-bitcoin monthly 0.5 2021-11-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1637095796573-BX4VT3FH5NK7M7Q83ZQD/Crypto+holdings.JPG Portfolio Strategy - The short(er) term story on Bitcoin - Make it stand out Source: Portfolio values of demographic cohorts via Federal Reserve data. % of portfolio assumes the individual’s crypto exposure is in-line with the overall population median. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1637012007454-PCJNG9QWYZMT53RD77L4/Bitcoin+and+Money+Supply.jpg Portfolio Strategy - The short(er) term story on Bitcoin - Make it stand out ‘Money supply’ aggregates figures from the US, Eurozone, Japan, China, Australia and Canada (converted into US$) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1637011343490-TF3PVJWB9VYWTK7DXCQA/Correlations+-+Bitcoin%2C+RMB%2C+TIPS%2C+Gold%2C+USTs.jpg Portfolio Strategy - The short(er) term story on Bitcoin - Make it stand out Uses 2-day price change and rolling 60 day correlation https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1637099881242-1WPALB98UM4HOO0I2NMS/Gold+and+recessions.jpg Portfolio Strategy - The short(er) term story on Bitcoin - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1637099743214-ULYUU3IW1O7ZQLJBDGPY/Bitcoin+and+Recessions.jpg Portfolio Strategy - The short(er) term story on Bitcoin - Make it stand out Recession probability 12 months ahead. Source: Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters https://www.tajdoventures.com/blog/technology monthly 0.5 2021-12-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1639414145919-EI88K529IYPNPPWI3RQS/Low+Beta.jpg Portfolio Strategy - “At the root of all financial bubbles is a good idea carried to excess” - Make it stand out Source: AQR. Portfolios are an updated and extended version used in Frazzini, Andrea and Lasse H. Pedersen (2014), “Betting Against Beta," Journal of Financial Economics, 111, 1–25. Shown on log scale. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1639416232743-8S9TWFQTRC3TD4PB1MTP/Sector+returns+and+capture.JPG Portfolio Strategy - “At the root of all financial bubbles is a good idea carried to excess” - Make it stand out Source: Kenneth French; returns since 1969 using sub-sector returns. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1639414670760-CYWZFH9UCJ39I98LO8ZJ/Tech+vs+S%26P+equal+weight.jpg Portfolio Strategy - “At the root of all financial bubbles is a good idea carried to excess” - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1639417080970-LLBDCMT1ZJSO9O90WIPA/Tech+Valuation+and+Returns+%281%29.jpg Portfolio Strategy - “At the root of all financial bubbles is a good idea carried to excess” - Make it stand out Market cap weights. Index composition in appendix. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1639304023748-DE5K5B542G82470UV2X5/Inflation+Sensitivities.JPG Portfolio Strategy - “At the root of all financial bubbles is a good idea carried to excess” - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.tajdoventures.com/blog/emerging-over-emerged monthly 0.5 2022-02-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1643150221035-51CUAF47KQFJVAMEXG0R/EM+vs+US+equity.jpg Portfolio Strategy - A monetary ‘flywheel’ in reverse. Asia / EMs should outperform the US. - Make it stand out 1970 to 1980: Weighted index of HK, India, South Africa and Mexico. 1980 to 1987: HK, Korea, India, South Africa, Mexico, Malaysia, Israel. From 1987: MSCI EM Index. Sources: OECD, St Louis Federal Reserve, FXTop (historical FX rates), Stooq.com, World Bank. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1643149781053-M9K755UPYM9M6AIXX2RU/Heuristic.JPG Portfolio Strategy - A monetary ‘flywheel’ in reverse. Asia / EMs should outperform the US. - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1643228149442-DTKXD8O3SBGNB7FUT6PG/USD+REER.jpg Portfolio Strategy - A monetary ‘flywheel’ in reverse. Asia / EMs should outperform the US. - Make it stand out Source: BIS https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1643577709596-J7Y9SGBUL9R0OI3T9ZKT/Treasury+Demand.JPG Portfolio Strategy - A monetary ‘flywheel’ in reverse. Asia / EMs should outperform the US. - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1643229388442-P2MDYSRIOFG7NWWPP5YN/US%24+vs+EM+relative+5yr.jpg Portfolio Strategy - A monetary ‘flywheel’ in reverse. Asia / EMs should outperform the US. - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1643553688568-BFGW8CR2HQWNIK544SCR/Foreign+impact+of+FF.JPG Portfolio Strategy - A monetary ‘flywheel’ in reverse. Asia / EMs should outperform the US. - Make it stand out Chart 1. Source: “Foreign Effects of Higher U.S. Interest Rates”. Iacoviello, Matteo and Gaston Navarro, 2019. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1643554356810-KVR3X0K5DW9WHCK16GBA/EM+Monetary+Shock.jpg Portfolio Strategy - A monetary ‘flywheel’ in reverse. Asia / EMs should outperform the US. - Make it stand out Chart 2. Source: “Foreign Effects of Higher U.S. Interest Rates”. Iacoviello, Matteo and Gaston Navarro, 2019. https://www.tajdoventures.com/blog/what-are-inflation-break-evens-signalling monthly 0.5 2022-02-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1644355682451-VS6QO18YXXZIPIK4E4KE/Survey+inflation.jpg Portfolio Strategy - What are inflation break-evens signalling? - Make it stand out Source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Fed. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1644351027602-JH6WN6ZV33BRNKGZCZX6/Inflation+expectations.jpg Portfolio Strategy - What are inflation break-evens signalling? - Make it stand out Source: Stephen G. Cecchetti, Michael E. Feroli, Peter Hooper, Anil Kashyap and Kermit L. Schoenholtz. www. fivethirtyeight.com. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1644356278980-3H0ZLTYALDJZTXIPQ6IM/Inflation+expectations+%282%29.jpg Portfolio Strategy - What are inflation break-evens signalling? - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.tajdoventures.com/blog/c3s56yv1n4jqv874vatrh0zbt10az5 monthly 0.5 2022-03-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1644763000713-3F57ZAQADSX989M0H0AQ/China+CPI+weights.JPG Portfolio Strategy - China’s re-opening — timing and implications - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1646166033773-EZOU5Z29NU2V12XOI0IH/China+cons+confidence.jpg Portfolio Strategy - China’s re-opening — timing and implications - Make it stand out Property price uses average of Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin and Nanjing. Sources below. https://www.tajdoventures.com/blog/housing-leads-the-economy monthly 0.5 2022-03-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1648723285113-CR53JG8BWS5414ZRGEN8/Housing+and+affordability.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Warning signs in housing - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1648724333159-YT23AH6XZ8OHHI722SSI/Housing+composite.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Warning signs in housing - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1648723936295-84CAMLHVMJFJAK6VS8PC/Housing+and+inventories.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Warning signs in housing - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1648723814771-8HNGAVQYKVTKXVED0E3N/Housing+and+FAI.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Warning signs in housing - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1648708338881-L23C39NSX1TX7TCXJ1KF/Housing+and+M2.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Warning signs in housing - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.tajdoventures.com/blog/the-fed-may-choose-to-settle-for-higher-inflation monthly 0.5 2022-04-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1650568444542-1GH265PJ91ZRFIY1KMTX/Coefficient+-+High+Freq+EU.JPG Portfolio Strategy - The Fed may choose to live with higher inflation - Make it stand out “Information effects of euro area monetary policy: New evidence from high-frequency futures data”. Mark Kerssenfischer https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1650486224021-VXQCPAQ8VOIIRSDDWXWG/Coefficient+inflation.JPG Portfolio Strategy - The Fed may choose to live with higher inflation - Make it stand out Standardized to a 1ppt increase in rates; some data is approximated https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1650486248124-VDMAGRJUFBSMYHE393L9/Coefficient+GDP.JPG Portfolio Strategy - The Fed may choose to live with higher inflation - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1650570403485-LLLWSKHN9U0PRPLGFVDT/Tightening+required.JPG Portfolio Strategy - The Fed may choose to live with higher inflation - Make it stand out Author’s calculations; IMF, St Louis Fed and country statistics offices https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1650569409714-HD5JOEYWVZWVNLFQ1V1J/Tightening+impact.JPG Portfolio Strategy - The Fed may choose to live with higher inflation - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1650568206864-8KB45RS0V3OD6JU0OT38/Coefficient+-+High+Freq.jpg Portfolio Strategy - The Fed may choose to live with higher inflation - Make it stand out “Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises— The Role of Information Shocks” Marek Jarocinski and Peter Karadi https://www.tajdoventures.com/blog/prerequisites-for-lower-inflation monthly 0.5 2022-06-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1654457707852-BUQWA5AKMZSMA1KFYIIX/Inflation+Persistence.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Prerequisites for lower inflation - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1654349144108-54INB997RCOA26IQVX0S/Trimmed+mean.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Prerequisites for lower inflation - Make it stand out Source: Dallas Fed; own calculations https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1654459582580-QZG6RYA2374HVZ4BLCI4/Excess+savings+are+spent.JPG Portfolio Strategy - Prerequisites for lower inflation - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1654349930668-XY5WYUZL1YDWNMF0L7I8/Broad+Money+%26+Inflation+2.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Prerequisites for lower inflation - Make it stand out Source: Federal Reserve ‘Fraser’ Archives; own calculations https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610a94a355d25a73cad06024/1654545768031-548G0H6TPJ8IPTEV2A1W/PPI+and+CPI.jpg Portfolio Strategy - Prerequisites for lower inflation - Make it stand out Canada and China PPI (YoY) and FX (YoY) against the US$ https://www.tajdoventures.com/contact daily 0.75 2021-08-20 https://www.tajdoventures.com/donate daily 0.75 2021-08-16